Blog with MAE Capital

2024 has started off with a bang with earthquakes and Tsunamis.  On the first business day of 2024, the bond market gave back some gains from the last couple weeks and the Stock market was flat but still positive.   If the first few days of 2024 are any indication of the year we will be in for some turbulent times.  2024 is also an election year so prepare yourself for a political ride that we have never seen before in history except for possibly in 1861-1865 (the Civil War).  

This year will start off with a slow economy, and a slow Real Estate market as interest rates are still too high for the average person to afford to buy a home, especially in California.  The Federal Reserve  (The Fed) has vowed to lower interest rates if they see the economy start to decline.  The Federal Reserve's Chief, Jeremy Powell, stated that there could be 3 times they consider lowering interest rates in 2024.  This would be a great thing for Real Estate as more people could afford to buy a home.  If the Federal Reserve does lower interest rates and you did buy a house in the last 2.5 years you would have an opportunity to refinance and lower your monthly mortgage payment.  If you have a $500,000 mortgage at 7.5% and the rates move down to 6.5% this could save you $336 a month in your mortgage payment and for most families every penny counts in this economy.  

Watch the election antics as this will also drive interest rates.  If it looks like people will be electing more of the same types of people to Congress and the Senate and the Presidency be prepared for more oddities like we have seen since the current administration has taken office.  We the people in the Real Estate and Mortgage industries know what has been done to the Real Estate Market over the last few years due to inflation caused by giving away taxpayer funds to other countries and stimulus checks and the general devaluing of the US Dollar.  You will not hear the truth on your TV or radio about what has really happened to the economy, so I am glad you found this article to see what has been done to the Real Estate Industry due to the mismanagement of the monetary system by our government.  This election will probably be the most pivotal election of your lifetime to determine the direction of the United States States.  I am not going to tell you who to vote for as I still believe people have the right to choose but some don’t as you see playing out in current news.  

One giant issue that is failing to make the news that is affecting the dollar is the advent of the BRICS money system which has vowed to take the US dollar out of being the world’s reserve currency.  BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and now many other nations have joined this movement powered by China and the Yuan (Chinese money) to become the new world’s reserve currency.  This is slowly gaining traction as most countries are tired of Americans running the show and flexing their power all over the globe.  The BRICS system is poised to bring the US Petrodollar down which is how all oil has been forced to be purchased over the last almost century.   This means that until now all other countries had to convert their currency to the dollar to purchase oil which has made the dollar dominate and has allowed America to thrive over the years.  This is also a major reason why our military is in the Middle East currently and could spark World War 3, which is another topic that could have strong implications for the US economy.   If the BRICS money takes over as the world's reserve currency the US will be forced to convert the dollar to the Yuan to buy oil which could further devalue the dollar causing even more inflation for the U.S..

This is one reason why with the high interest rates we have seen we have not seen Real Estate values crash as inflation or the devaluing of the US dollar is keeping Real Estate values high.  We should also be aware of the debt the country has accumulated as America has over $33 Trillion in debt and until now it has not been a big issue as the US has controlled the world markets, if that changes then the dollar will be further devalued and we will have more inflation and with inflation comes higher interest rates.  Some would argue that America just needs to print more money and if that happened it would further devalue the dollar and cause even more inflation and more inflation means higher interest rates.  At this point in American economics, we are at a tipping point, and with the current path we seem to be on a collision course with monetary disaster unless we get spending and money giveaways under control, if not we could run into serious economic problems that I don’t want to get into in this piece.   

The economy is going to be the biggest issue of 2024 and that will directly affect the Real Estate markets if it is not managed properly.  Real Estate values will be in line with inflation this year and interest rates will have little effect on Real Estate values as inflation drives interest rates.  Interest rates are the Federal Reserve’s only way to combat inflation.  The theory is that as inflation increases the Fed will increase interest rates to slow consumer and business spending and thus slow the demand for goods and services.  What is not being addressed is the devaluing of the US dollar by other countries which makes all the goods we get from other countries more expensive, especially oil.   To conclude, I believe that 2024 will be a very volatile year for Real Estate and we can pray rates come down enough to get more first-time home buyers into homes.  

Posted by Gregg Mower on January 3rd, 2024 10:54 AM

Here we are in the middle of 2023, had to believe.  This year has been one of the slowest Real Estate Markets we have seen since 2009.   We are experiencing record inflation for the 21st century of the like we have not seen since the early 1970s.  This tells us that the cost of goods and services has risen faster than most people’s income streams have.  What does this mean for Real Estate now and into the second half of 2023?

Based on the history of inflation you see the Stock markets go up due to the fact that the valuations of companies tend to go higher with inflation.  We have seen this throughout history and this time is no exception.   What you must be cautious of is when companies’ costs rise so high and the demand for those goods or services decreases thus income for those companies will also decline.  After this companies will have to lay off salary-based employees to keep up with the rising costs and when this starts to happen you will see the economy fall into a recession or worse depression.   

Inflation is such a killer of economies in many ways not just with the higher costs of goods and services but also with the availability of money with higher interest rates.  Over the last year and a half now we have seen interest rates move from historic lows for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages from the 2%-3% range to now a 7%-8% range.  What this has done is cut out a whole segment of the population’s ability to qualify for a new home loan.  In California, we have starter home prices hovering around $500,000 on average for the state.  What the higher interest rates have done is cut the people that could have qualified for this house.  For example, the payment on a $500,000 house with 5% down at a 3% interest rate is $2002.62 principal and interest at 7.5% Interest rate the payment would be $3,321.27.   At the 3% rate, an average borrower would have to make right about $7,000 a month to qualify for the mortgage.  At 7.5% the borrower will have to show around $11,500 a month.  This shows you the power of interest rates and buying power.  

That said you would assume that Real Estate prices would have to come down to accommodate the higher interest rates.  We saw this occur in some markets but not nearly enough to make up the difference. Today we see Real Estate prices staying relatively steady.  The reason for this is interesting.  Since so many people refinanced or purchased their homes with lower interest rates, they are reluctant to sell their homes as the can’t qualify for a move-up home, and in some cases, people couldn’t afford the house they are living in if they had to do it all over again.  So, we are seeing people holding on to the lower interest rates and not selling their homes as they would have to qualify for a new home under the higher interest rates.  With people not selling their homes, we are experiencing a supply shortage of homes on the market and with that low supply of available housing prices have remained steady even with the higher interest rates.  

The next hammer to fall, unfortunately, is going to be employment layoffs.  This is going to happen due to inflation and government spending that fuels inflation with an oversupply of money.  In the second half of 2023, I see consumers holding on to their hard-earned money as the average consumer feels that something is going to happen, they just don’t know what.  There are many factors that could fuel inflation, but the biggest unreported issue will be the worldwide devaluation of the dollar.  When the world drops the US Dollar as the worldwide reserve currency, all the goods we buy from overseas will cost more and more.  This is something that no generation of Americans has ever seen, the closest we got to this was the great depression.  The way America got out of that was World War 2 by producing Ships, Planes, Autos, Guns, Ammunition, and such.   The largest difference between then and now is that we produce very little in the US, we outsource to China and other countries.   History tends to repeat itself, so shouldn’t be preparing for a war?  If you are paying attention to the world and not preoccupied with all the social issues going on in our country, you will see how close we are to this prophecy coming true.  

I don’t like to be negative, and I truly believe in America and the American way of life, however, I must be a realist with what I know and have seen with history.   As the US Dollar becomes less valuable in the world markets this will cause further inflationary pressures on our economy.   The only way out of this at this point is to figure out a way to re-set America’s debt to the Central Bank or get rid of the Central Reserve Banking system altogether and start with something new.  How this could be done I would not know, but I do know it will be a very painful process to every American.  With the BRICS nations and a new world reserve currency on the horizon, America is going to have to do something fast, very fast as that is supposed to launch in August of this year, and over half of the world’s nations have agreed to sign on this new asset-backed currency.  Our central Bank is going to try and compete with this with a new Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).  The problem with this is that even our own citizens don’t like the idea of this as Americans don’t like the idea of being watched or controlled in the name of some made-up government issue like climate control.  For more on this please I urge you to do research on this as this CBDC is supposed to come out in July of 2023.

What will a CBDC do to interest rates, housing, and inflation?  This is something that remains to be seen but rest assured it will be a rocky ride going into the end of the year.  I always say if you can own Real Estate do so as Real Estate will have value.  I believe that once people see the changes happening there will be a flight to quality investments like real estate.  I will bet the Stock Markets will struggle, to say the least.  Interest rates will be dependent on how much inflation we have as interest rates will rise as inflation rises.  So, if you are looking for advice as to when to buy Real Estate my advice would be to buy as much as you can now, if you can find it, and hold those properties that you hold currently.  Keep an eye on the world and what is going on, and research other sources other than your mainstream media that most of us have grown up on as we are not being told the truth to keep the masses under control for as long as they can.   Not that one individual can do anything, but the power of the masses can make changes.  

Posted by Gregg Mower on June 1st, 2023 11:02 AM

“ I heard the market was red hot and homes are selling for more than the asking price”  this is what we are hearing daily from our clients.   Is this true anymore or is something else going on now?     All you hear on the TV and Radio is that the Real Estate Market is red hot, but is this really true?  In my 37 years in the Real Estate and Mortgage business, I have never seen a market quite like this one we are experiencing.  I also hold a degree in economics and have not seen anything like this in history. So what’s going on, one minute things are going crazy with low interest rates and more buyers than sellers.  The next minute everything slows down.  

This is happening across the board, interest rates are still at historic lows, but it appears everyone that has had the opportunity to refinance and take advantage of the low rates has done sone so.  Or is it that, like COVID, we are about to experience a second wave of people refinancing and buying homes.  We have never seen such a market in the past so there is no real model to judge this on.   But we have seen a dramatic slow down in home buying and refinancing over the last 3 months.  In California, they lifted the mask mandate, and it appears those that have been locked down decided to all go on vacation at the same time.   

We generally see a summer lull in Real Estate, however, this one is far more pronounced than ever before.   It has me and others asking if this lull is just that or is it something else?  I do see this as the market seeking an equilibrium point, not an all-out bust.  I have seen big news in the markets before and the way the markets tend to react to this is by over-correcting on both sides.  I would liken this to stretching a rubber band and letting it go, it will spring up then back down then reach an equilibrium point.  Right now, in the real estate market, we are seeing a bounce down or a slowdown after it was super-heated.

Another factor that we have not seen before is that California was shut down for 15 months and people were told to stay inside and not travel.  In a normal year, people would travel all time of the year but the last year and a half have been far from normal.  What we saw during the pandemic was people staying home not traveling, so when they were told they could now go out and about they did and they are still are taking vacations and traveling not thinking about Real Estate or their mortgages.   Couple that with their kids being out of school they are taking full advantage of the time they have out of their houses seeing family they have not seen in months and enjoying the outdoors while the weather is good.  

Understanding how humans think is a big part of economics.  So as schools reopen in August and kids head back to the classrooms that will leave the parents back home and working with the time to think about their living situation and their financial situation.  Coupled with low-interest rates that the Federal Reserve says they are keeping low until 2023 I believe that the Real Estate market will pick up again by the end of August and into September, but it will not be at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic thus the bounce.  Another interesting phenomenon that will be discontinued in September is the extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits.  This will send people back to the workforce, but will the economy be able to accept all of these long-term unemployed folks that took advantage of the system?  As an employer, I would not hire an able-bodied person who chose to stay on government assistance rather than work as that shows me laziness and I think this will be a big issue in the high-end job market.  Entry-level jobs like Walmart, retail jobs, and restaurant workers will be happy to take these folks back into the workforce as those workers can easily be replaced if they don’t work out.  But I digress, those entry-level workers will not be homebuyers in the immediate future but having them back in the workforce will allow management and owners to realize a better income level so those folks will be the benefactor of the ability to purchase real estate.  So my crystal ball says that by September we should start to see Real Estate pick back up for all the reasons that are not the standard reasons for Real Estate to boom or bust.  To get started today and beat the rest of the crowd call one of our Real Estate Professionals to get pre-approved for a home loan and start your search as new listings hit the market you will be there first.  If you have been waiting for your credit score to improve before refinancing start now ahead of the crowd Interest Rates are still in the 2’s and 3’s.   Call MAE Capital Real Estate and Loan to get started at 916-672-6130.

Posted by Gregg Mower on August 5th, 2021 2:14 PM

Ok we are a little over 2 months now since California shut down (March 16) so what is going on with interest rates?  Interest rates are great let’s just start there.  Interest rates are in the low 3’s and high 2’s currently.  So what is driving interest rates, you would think the answer would be easy, however it is far from easy.  There are many different factors that will determine what your interest rate will be and it will vary from person to person based on there credit scores, down payment or equity, cash back verse no cash back, loan size, loan program, fees waivers, and list goes on.  If you hear an advertised interest rate that is really low it probably does not pertain to you or what you would want from your home loan. Interest Rates are also geographical meaning that depending where you live in the United States will determine your base interest rate. So how are rates calculated and how do they vary from lender to lender.

First lenders across the nation give California a little higher interest rate than the rest of the nation to begin with.  This is due to the fact that California home loans tend to pay off faster than other parts of the nation.  This affects interest rates in that the longer a borrower will hold on to their current mortgage the more interest a lender can accumulate over time.  In California people tend to move more often that other parts of the country making the amount a lender can make on interest over time less so in order to compensate they raise the initial interest rate a bit.  So if you are hearing, on the news, that interest rates across the nation have come down and they give you an average rate you can rest assured that California will be on the high side of the curve. 

The next determining factor or factors that determine the interest rate you will get is your credit score(s).  When a lender is pricing your loan, they have to use the low mid-score of a married couple and the mid credit score if you are single.  When your Loan Officer (MAE Capital Mortgage)  prices your loan with lenders across the country we will have to have your credit score and the amount you are putting down and other factors in order to get the rate that fits you specifically then we will shop for the best loan scenario.  It also makes a difference if you are choosing a mortgage that will pay off bills in other words if you take cash out of the equity of your home on a refinance it will also increase the interest rate a bit.  When you hear a lender advertising that they will pay off all your bills with a refinance know that is costing you a little bit more to do that.  I would not discourage this just be aware of the increased costs even if you have 800+ credit scores the interest rate will be a bit higher.

If you are one of those who love to shop around to find the best interest rate you had better be prepared to give your exact credit score, down payment or equity position that is accurate as a bare minimum.  Here at MAE Capital that is exactly what we do on every one of our loans as we are Mortgage Brokers that hold both a California Department of Real Estate License as well as the National Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS) license in order to be able to offer rates from lenders across the nation.  Not all lenders are created equal so be aware that rates will vary from mortgage company to mortgage company and that has to do with their overhead requirements.  The more people a lender has to employ the higher the cost for that lender to originate a home loan.  A Mortgage Broker will have less overhead, in most cases, than a Mortgage Banker or a Bank who will underwrite and fund their own originated loans.  The reason why a Mortgage Broker will have lower rates is the fact that they can shop the entire nation for lenders with the best rates and programs where Banks and Mortgage Bankers will only have their own set programs offered by there company.  Mortgage Brokers also get what is called a wholesale rate verses a retail rate and that low rate is pushed to their/our customers. 

The type of loan you choose will have a different rate than other loan types.  A loan type is a FHA Loan, Conventional Loan, VA Loan, Jumbo Loan, Non-traditional loan, Private Money Loan, USDA Loan, CALHFA Loan, and more.  All of these loans will have different rates associated with the risk they carry the higher risk loans, such as Private Money or Hard Money Loans carry the highest rates.  Again, if you hear an advertisement for an interest rate or program know that what you hear is not what you will actually get, in most cases.  For example; we have a lender that we sell loans to that has a program out now that has interest rates in the 2’s, but you have to have the perfect scenario in order to qualify for that program such as 750 mid credit score down payment or equity greater than 20% of the value or purchase price of that home, if you fit the parameters you win and get the rate.  But if you are trying to take cash out of your home to pay bills off then suddenly you don’t and most people only hear what they want to and when they hear rates are in the 2’s they tend to pick up the phone and call around.  Another factor that is currently changing the interest rates is the fact that many people have listened to the media and have stopped making their mortgage payment during the pandemic this not only hurts them but it hurts those with good credit and never being late on a mortgage.  With people not making their payments during this pandemic it is hurting those that are, and are making higher interest rates.  You see lenders have priced in the profit from collecting mortgage payments for the origination of a new loan before the pandemic and now they simply are not so we are experiencing higher rates because of this.  One phone call to MAE Capital Mortgage Inc. and we will be able to run your credit while we have you on the phone and will be able to give you an accurate interest rate.  I hope this blog helps people to navigate through all this and we are here to help.  Give u a call to get your pricing today at 916-672-6130. 

Posted by Gregg Mower on May 27th, 2020 10:50 AM

2018 started off with relatively low interest rates but in the last few weeks interest rates have been on the rise.  The stock markets have hit record highs and the economy has added over 200,000 new jobs.   Although the Stock has corrected and has become volatile in the last week or so it is still trending over 24,000 points, the highest in it’s history.   So with the strong stock market and new jobs interest rates are rising to slow inflationary pressures, a kind braking system to the economy.  In order to understand this affect to the equity markets (Stock Markets) and why it signals coming inflation, we have to break it down to why it is happening.   As people make more money and buy more things that puts a pressure on the supply of goods and services and when there is a stronger demand for goods and services prices will tend to go up.  As prices go up for goods and services the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to slow the demand down as the higher prices for credit (higher interest rates) will slow people from purchasing goods and services, in theory.   

The theory of fighting inflation by raising interest rates has been a policy of the Federal Reserve Board since the 1970s.  So, when the interest rate markets see any possibility of inflation they will tend to start the process of raising interest rates in anticipation of the Federal Reserve raising them.  This is what we have been seeing since the first of the year. Several events have happened to signal possible inflation in the future and as they unfold we see the markets adjusting to stay in front of what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates when they meet at their monthly meetings.  One of the major events that is signaling inflation is the lowering of the corporate tax rate to 20%.  It seems people in the media and some closed-minded folks think that by lowering corporate taxes helps the rich some how when, in fact, it helps the American middle class people far more.  This is simple economics that is not taught in our public schools.  

To fully understand this, you must first look at corporations as tax pass through entities.  When a corporation pays higher taxes they just pass that cost through to the consumer in the form of higher prices for their goods and services.  Higher taxes also mean a big corporation will limit how much money they keep as profit in the U. S. as opposed to taking that profit in a country with lower taxation rates.  The money saved by the lower tax rates will tend to keep the money in the US and will be re invested to hire more American workers and keep dollars in the US.  Thus; more money in our economy for the American people to spend and eventually driving up prices causing inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to slow the economy down.  You see, if the economy grows too fast then there will be a higher demand for goods and service than they can be provided and that will cause prices to go up.  The theory has been to raise interest rates so the flow of money slows down with the higher cost of money.  This is a confusing topic for most people that don’t have a degree in economics like your author, but if you understand these basic principles you can not only save yourself money, but you can make money by knowing what is coming.       

So how does this relate to Real Estate you ask?  Knowing the economics behind the economy you can make better decisions as to when to buy home for investment or when to lock in your interest rate on your home or when to refinance and save on your monthly payment.  What this tells me about this year in Real Estate is that it should be a hot year for Real Estate Investment on both the Residential side as well as the commercial side of Real Estate.  A smart investor will note the economy is starting to improve and more people will have more disposable income to invest thus driving up Real Estate prices.  We have seen this happening in the residential sector for a few years now but it did not have to do with a strong economy as so much as the lack of supply of homes.    We have seen builders come back into the markets where they can build, and the supply of homes has increased to offset demand.  In the markets where builders can not build, due to lack of land, we have seen prices increase to astronomical levels.  IN some markets the Government has kicked around rent-control which would limit the amount of rent a landlord could collect in a certain area.  The result of rent control would be more run-down real estate, lack of new investment and corruption.  The Government should let the free markets figure out where rental prices should be as well as values.  As you can tell I am a firm believer in free markets and less government involvement as history has shown that when governments intervene in economics it causes markets to tighten as people and companies have to spend more for compliance of the government regulation that enviably hurts the very consumer they are trying to help.  I know the what the argument is from the other side is but it makes no economic sense as every result of more government is higher prices to people, bar none.  

In conclusion my advice to potential new home buyers is to lock in their interest rate as soon as they can when they are buying a home in this market.  If you have been contemplating refinancing your home my advice would be to do it sooner than later as you will be facing higher interest rates.  If you are looking to invest in Real Estate, again do it sooner than later as you will not only get a lower interest rate today than you will tomorrow, but the prices of the Real Estate Investment will be lower today than tomorrow.  Interest rates will be common place to be in the 5%-6% range for residential homes in the next 30-60 days from February 7, 2018.  For more questions on buying Real Estate or Refinancing or even commercial Real Estate give us a call and we will help you with all your Real Estate investment needs.  Again, MAE Capital Real Estate and Loan 916-672-6130.  

Update to this article 2/22/18- Rates continue to rise due to all the factors listed above and now the Federal Reserve has also said they need to counter inflation by raising rates.  I will  predict that interest rates will be consistently in the 5's by mid summer.  So if you are looking to refinance to take cash out to consolidate bills, pay for college, or home improvement I would suggest that you push up your time frames and get it done now so you can lock in a lower interest rate.  It is simple, call one of our qualified Loan Officers and lock you interest rate in today.  

Update: March 5 2018,  Interest Rates still are trending upward although not as fast as we have seen.  Again the stance we are taking is to lock our clients in as soon as we can to get the lowest rate possible.  As a Broker we are trending about 1-2 points lower in fees or about .125%-.25% better in interest rates than our Mortgage Banking friends.  

Posted by Gregg Mower on February 7th, 2018 4:43 PM

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